Category: risk
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SSO Provides Low Risk Entry
While the “edge” or probability for the trade may be 50 percent or less (accumulation pattern is not what it was a week ago), SSO does provide a low risk entry point that can be easily managed with a stop under the recent lows. I am willing to take low…
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Important Lesson and Free Trade Report
I am posting today’s issue of the member only Trade Report. It is the shortest report I have published, and has the smallest focus list ever presented. There are also no charts. However, there is an important lesson that applies to blog readers as well as report membersqau. http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_313cgc6qqtr
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Financials and Banks
Many financial and bank stocks are showing bottoming continuation patterns. However, SKF, the inverse ETF that I use to short the sector, is at a key support level and may be good for a quick trade. The probability of the trade working is likely not better than 50 percent. However,…
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SPY Trade Analysis
Last Monday (August 12th) I took a small SPY short position based on a “failed breakout” scenario, above $131 (I actually used SDS–the inverse ETF). It’s now trading at $126.69. Below is what I wrote to my trade report members. It explains not only the setup, but the thought process…
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Why I like to take partial profits
X is a good example of why I like taking partial profits. I would have been inclined to take full profits when I had a decent gain. Instead, I took partial profits, moved my stop up to break even, and now am reaping the benefits of today’s huge breakout. Note:…
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Anatomy of a Trade: WYNN
I shorted 500 shares of WYNN 8 days ago at $85.03 based on a “dirty bear flag” setup. While technically not a bear flag, the stock had broken support on was pulling back up to the resistance point. Volume distribution pattern was bearish, meaning heavy down days with low volume…
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Why Do You Like DUG
Here is an e-mail I received today: MS,Why do you like DUG so much? It looks to me like you are trying to pick a top in oils, just like you are trying to pick a bottom in SSO. Don’t fight the trend man. SSO is going lower and DUG…
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Position Update and Lesson Learned
I am still holding my SSO position. I bought at $59.96 and it closed at $59.66. Although today did suck, remember that the lows in the S&P still have not been pierced. I am still playing the bounce until my tight stop is hit. I am still holding PBR as…
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Trades and Thoughts
All of my oversold bounce indicators are now flashing buy signals. However, I do have some concerns and am not taking on any huge positions here. While I have made some trades to the long side to try and capitalize on a bounce, they are all average or small in…
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PCX: High Risk and High Reward
PCX has been the killer momo play for 2008. The stock has more than tripled, and has been relentless since breaking out in April, going from $50 to $150 in about two months. When I say relentless, I mean relentless. In that span, there was not even one high volume…
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Perception and Trade Management
Trading chart patterns is an inexact science. Two smart and experienced traders can view a chart in very different ways, based on their biases, mental makeup, psychology and a variety of other factors. Let’s take a look at SWN: An argument can be made for three different chart patterns. One…
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A Low Risk, Risky S&P Trade
I bought 300 shares of SSO at $62.23. SSO is 2X long the S&P 500. You may be wondering why I would go long an index in a downtrend, which I rarely do. The answer is quite simple. I am getting a low risk entry on a risky trade. Huh?…
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Catching a Breakout Early: CF Trade
On Tuesday I bought 300 shares of CF at $92.05. Today the stock broke out over resistance at around $100 and closed at $107.76. I sold half my position near the close at $107.34 for a $2293 gain (+16.6%). I am holding 150 shares and will buy more on a…
Paul J Singh 