While GOOG is on the bullish focus list and I am high on the setup on pullback, it is very overbought. The two period RSI is off the charts extreme. I took a small speculative short position. My stop is at $526. Target is $510. This gives me 2:1 risk ratio.Keep in mind that GOOG's... Continue Reading →
As long as the lows hold, the bottoming thesis is in effect. I have focused on more short term 3-6 month charts lately, but here is a two year chart showing the power of the oversold RSI, even in a longer term down trending "topping" market.
Here is an e-mail I received today:MS,Why do you like DUG so much? It looks to me like you are trying to pick a top in oils, just like you are trying to pick a bottom in SSO. Don't fight the trend man. SSO is going lower and DUG is too.Before I get to the... Continue Reading →
It's tough to ignore the strong move in residential construction, aka, homebuilders. While my head tells me to stay away, the charts tell me otherwise. For months I have been using bounces in the sector to reload shorts, but not this time. There is something different about this bounce. Take a look at the chart... Continue Reading →
I'm scared as hell to buy a financial, even with a small position size. However, if I didn't know the name of the company behind this chart (Morgain Stanley), I would be buying. We have price breakout over the 50 day moving average after the stock printed a bottoming long tail on heavy volume a... Continue Reading →
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) broke out to new highs on above average volume. A low volume pullback to the prior highs, just under $79, would normally provide a good entry point.While the breakout is bullish, there are some concerns for this stock. Notice the negative divergences in both RSI and stochastics. One would expect new... Continue Reading →
One of my favorite short plays is the "new high failure" trade. There are three elements to this trade:1) That stock makes a new high2) RSI peaks at a lower level than the previous high3) Take a short position if and only if the stock dip below the previous highThe recent failure of AAPL is... Continue Reading →