Paul J Singh

Category: strategy

  • DBA Analysis Revisited

    On February 26th, I noted my skepticism about the ag sector. At the time ag ETF DBA was trading at $43. As of this posting, it is at $39.50. I received many e-mails disagreeing with my analysis. This post is not to boast, but to point out how important it…

  • Today’s Trade: GGB

    I bought 200 shares of GGB, a steel stock, at $31.30. I bought 200 shares of JOYG at $67.15. I lightened up on my DECK and CPLA shorts. I’ll get more in depth on these trades later today. I have enough longs now and will look to add shorts on…

  • Today’s Trade: CPLA (Short) and AKS

    I went short 400 shares of CPLA at $55.68. This was a textbook short play that took a nose dive shortly after I entered. I bought after the stock’s failure at the 200 day moving average. This is one of my go to patterns: broken momo stock, drops below 200…

  • Trade Update: SPY, ICLR, DECK

    I bought 200 shares of SSO at $65.84. For those that didn’t read last night’s post, this trade is based on the oversold stochastic strategy. Not sure if I am in too early, as the read line is still above 20. However, the black line, which I focus on, is…

  • Trading SPY and Stochastics in a Bear Market

    If recent history is any indication, the next time the stochastic indicator hits an extreme oversold reading of less than 20, it will be time to buy the S&P 500. Since October the SPY has hit this level 6 times and made at least a three point gain in 5…

  • SPY and Stochastics

    I’ll have more on this tonight, but keep an eye on the SPY and the stochastic reading (set at 5,3,3). Recent history suggests that an extreme oversold reading will be an excellent short term trade.

  • A Bullish Divergence in AAPL?

    Frequent e-mailer and one of my most loyal readers, Hal B., asked about a bullish divergence setup in AAPL. I don’t have annotation capabilities from my current locale, so bear with me as I explain the chart. I do see a slight divergence that might be used for an extremely…

  • Today’s Trade: PCLN

    I bought 50 shares of PCLN at $121.30. I like the chart, but it was tough finding a good entry. We’ve got support at old resistance, which is $120. However, many strong breakouts pullback to the bottom of the breakout candle. If that were to happen, the stock could pullback…

  • Agriculture: Now What?

    Well, it seems the whole world knows about the ag sector. For me, that means it’s time to get the *blank* out. If you take a look at the chart of DBA, an agriculture ETF, it is hitting a level where it typically pulls back from. While there are more…

  • Market and Trading Notes

    The market is clearly in “no man’s land”, as we wait to see if the current market consolidation is going to resolve by printing a bottom or taking another leg down. While I remain bearish, until the market proves itself otherwise, I am seeing quite a few bullish setups. At…

  • Copper Stocks Breaking Out

    Some of my best trades have come when I was wrong about a position and decided to go the other way with it. I am hoping today’s trade ends up falling into this category. I was short PCU as it had presented itself as a good short candidate. I was…

  • 5 Bullish Chart Setups

    I rarely trade 100 percent long or short, even if trading within the confines of a wildly bullish or bearish market. While my market bias is bearish, there are still some bullish stocks to trade. Here are a few nice looking setups, though few are perfect. BMRNThe stock broke out…

  • Classic Bear Market Action

    While I try to stay away from the chatter of market pundits, I do like to keep an eye on what a few select bloggers and “market gurus” that I respect have to say. What surprises me today is that I am hearing, even from those who I respect, that…

  • Is the Market Speculator Really Long a Homebuilder?

    I’ve been very busy, so I haven’t had a chance to update my trades. As stated in the comments section this morning, I unloaded a bunch of shorts and entered a few longs. I would like to add some more shorts on bounce. My bias is still to the down…

  • Winners Trade to Win

    As you already know, I am not a slave to conventional wisdom. It is my belief that most popular beliefs held by the masses are not wise at all. This applies to all walks of life, not just the stock market. The latest bit of unwise conventional wisdom is the…

  • Today’s Trade Entries: DUG and AGU

    I bought 200 shares of DUG at $46.56. DUG is an ETF that is short oil and gas. Looking at the chart, we see major accumulation and a pullback to a major moving average and price support. Note that this is the opposite of what is happening in the oil…

  • Short Play: Deck

    DECK is one of those fad short plays I have talked about in the past. The stock looks to be forming a topping pattern that could send the stock back where it belongs (currently has a higher PE than AAPL). Let’s take a look at the chart: The first thing…

  • Weekly Spy Chart

    Analysis of the weekly SPY chart leads me to believe the market still has room for a bounce before the next downturn.Key factors in support of bounce:1. Bounce at major price support2. Stochastic oversold crossover developing3. More room to move until resistance reached. Note that each time stochastic has reached…

  • Today’s Plan

    I am looking hedge my two long index plays (DDM and UWM), with couple of shorts. I went short NOV this morning and may pull the trigger on another stocks with a broken pattern that is bouncing. The shorts are less than half the size of my index positions, which…

  • Game Plan

    If you read my blog, you probably already know about the carnage that hit the world and the futures markets today, and might be looking to see how I plan to trade this market. Maybe the Spec has some well thought out game plan to make loads of money tomorrow.…

  • Excellent Article Highlighting Momentum Plays

    Tereas Lo has posted an excellent article highlighing sentiment cycles. It’s ironic that she uses the dry shipping industry as an example, since it is a sector I played on the way up and have recently been playing as a short on the way down (I’ve already shorted DRYS three…