Paul J Singh

  • The Market’s Response to the U.S. declaration of War on Germany During World War I

    On April 6, 1917 the United States broke the isolationist camp and declared war on Germany. The market was not thrilled. The market would not revisit pre-declaration levels until a few months after the end of the War (November 1918).

  • The Market Speculator’s Trading Portfolio

    Over the past month I have focused much of my free time on trading research. Currently my focus is on two research areas, breakouts and bear market turning points (I’m currently studying the markets during WWII and 1970s). Unfortunately, this has taken some time away from this blog. I have…

  • Old Reliable Looks Good (Bad) Again

    During every cycle I have a few stocks that I use as “go to” plays over and over again. I’ll keep taking the same trade in a stock until it stops working. Recently, DECK has been one of those reliable stocks and looks to be failing at resistance.

  • Countertrend Gold Trade

    Gold is getting interesting as a short term play (bearish) that is counter to the longterm trend (bullish). If light volume continues on the up move, I will enter one of the weaker stocks.

  • The Frustration of Waiting for a Pullback

    One of the most frustrating things about the breakout-pullback setup is when you’ve got a textbook breakout out of a base, the stock heads your watchlist, and instead of pulling back to any measure of support the stock keeps going and going. Last Thursday KEX’s breakout put it at the…

  • The Ag Gap

    I sure am glad I decided to wait for more of a bounce to short ag. Geez. All of the ag stocks are making big moves based on this headline, “Monsanto ups profit view on corn, herbicide strength,” and a few other headlines. I’m going to take a step back…

  • Homebuilders are Hard to Ignore

    It’s tough to ignore the strong move in residential construction, aka, homebuilders. While my head tells me to stay away, the charts tell me otherwise. For months I have been using bounces in the sector to reload shorts, but not this time. There is something different about this bounce. Take…

  • Re-Load?

    I’m looking to reload some short plays like MON.

  • My Favorite Trading Setups and More (Q & A Part 3)

    Since the market is closed today, I took some time to answer some more reader questions: Thomas asks: What chart service do you use? Market Speculator answers: I use Telechart. Every evening, I run my scans (breakout, pullback, etc) and flip through charts from my watchlists. Over the weekend, I…

  • Do I Have the Guts to Buy Financials?

    I’m scared as hell to buy a financial, even with a small position size. However, if I didn’t know the name of the company behind this chart (Morgain Stanley), I would be buying. We have price breakout over the 50 day moving average after the stock printed a bottoming long…

  • Quickie Trade Update

    I covered the MON short position today and was stopped out of GTLS.

  • More on DBA

    Before we look at the current chart, take a look at my recent DBA posts for a refresher on finding stocks/markets that are topping and ready to rollover. There is a lot to be learned from the charts. DBA today:

  • Bespoke’s Short Covering Statistics and Market Notes

    Read this excellent post from Bespoke showing that the biggest gains yesterday came from stocks with high short interest. This, coupled with the average volume of the rise, leads me to believe we have not bottomed and are still in a bear market. However, we still may have a playable…

  • How Would You Like Your Eggs

    I am wiping the egg off my face as I type. Obviously I was wrong not to trust the morning strength, at least for today. I used today’s strength to get out of my leveraged long S&P 500 position (SSO) at the close.

  • No Trust

    I trust this rally about as much as Mrs. Spitzer trusts her man. I may even put on a small “fade” position. We’ll see how events unfold later in the day. Did anybody else notice the new high/low and advance/decline ratios yesterday? Surprising to see so much red on a…

  • It’s a Matter of Perspective

    Well, after all the hysteria, today was a ho-hum day. No capitulation and not many major breakdowns in stocks that I watch. Instead, most of the stocks on my watchlist traded within support and resistance ranges. Even the stocks that made 5 percent plus losses, like DECK, are within the…

  • DECK

    I’ve made a few trades that I’ll have to update later. In the meantime, take a look at this chart of DECK. It’s been one of my big winners this year (as a short) and is a good example of how volume predicts price movement. I began posting and shorting…

  • Sector Volume and Market Notes

    One of two things will happen this week. Either we get a major decline or that capitulation move that everybody has been waiting for will lead to a nice bounce. I have no idea what will happen, but I am positioning myself for either outcome. Here is a list of…

  • Chart of the Day: DBA

    I know Agriculture has dominated my posts over the past two weeks, but it’s too hard to ignore the lack of accumulation in the sector. Here is a chart of DBA:

  • Saturday Review: Shorting Momentum Stocks

    This post from August 2007 offers some timely advice on shorting momentum stocks: Those of you familiar with my trading style know I rarely short high flying stocks. While it seems logical to go against a stock that is overextended, this type of trade generally takes on too much risk.…

  • A Low Risk, Risky S&P Trade

    I bought 300 shares of SSO at $62.23. SSO is 2X long the S&P 500. You may be wondering why I would go long an index in a downtrend, which I rarely do. The answer is quite simple. I am getting a low risk entry on a risky trade. Huh?…