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The "Experts" Get it Wrong – Example 1
Complex systems are rarely predictable. For this reason, I focus as much on risk in my trading systems as I do stock picking and setups. In most disciplines that try to predict the future, the so-called experts aren’t much better than a novice. This series highlights this point. Example 1:…
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Short Setup: ACI
Another day of bounce would setup the perfect short in ACI:
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Short Setup: AMZN
AMZN has broke down below the 50 day moving average and shows a negative volume pattern. RSI has also broke down. Looking for entry on bounce, which would provide a low risk setup.
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Trade Update: SPY and DIG
As noted to trade report members yesterday I entered SPY at $91.61 and DIG at $28.33. The SPY trade is based on anticipation of a morning star candle formation completing. Small loss if stopped out. Potential for big gain. DIG anticipates oversold bounce on test of moving average.
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On Time Frames and Over-Trading
Since joining Twitter, I’ve had a number of conversations with Trade Report members who also use twitter. I’ve found a common mistake between twitter users, and that is over-trading and not understanding time frames. Yesterday, a member told me he had entered one of my focus list stocks. I asked…
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Exiting Apple Short Trade
I exited the remaining position in the AAPL short trade at $37.44. The stock is now near a decent support area and may be set to bounce. Keep an eye on the bounce. If it’s on weak volume, we’ll get another good short opportunity via a “dead cat bounce”. Right…
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XBI Chart
Biotech has made a nice run and has pulled back to a nice entry level. I already have a position, with a stop placed under the pivot point. Stop placement is tricky since the pivot area is near the 50 day moving average, which also provided a good entry. If…
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Follow Me On Twitter
I am now going to start posting market thoughts and trades on twitter when I don’t have time to post to the site. See the sidebar to the right.
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The Apple Short Trade Continues
The AAPL short trade is turning into a textbook example of the overbought and evening star candle setup. So what do we do from here? Support may be found at the old pivot high, around $135. This would be a good area to exit shorts and possibily enter long. However,…
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Distribution Showing Up In Brazil ETF (EWZ)
EWZ, along with the other BRIC countries, has been on fire of late. However, the recent consolidation has the look of a short term top, with the volume pattern suggesting distribution. Note the high volume down days during the recent consolidation.
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Trade Update: AAPL
I took partial profits in my AAPL trade today. I have moved my stop up to entry and am letting the rest “ride”.
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More on the Overbought Status of Apple
Last night I talked about the “rubber band” short setup for Apple. If the stock heads into the close with the same candle pattern that has emerged this morning, I would expect a pullback based on an early “evening star” candle formation. My testing and experience tells me that this…
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Against the Apple Trend
AAPL is on my bullish watchlish. Why wouldn’t it be? It has a great price and volume pattern, and has shows relative strength versus the S&P 500. However, the stock is very overbought. Every one of the measures I use to find “rubber band” setups is off the charts. I…
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The Low Risk SKF Trade Setup
SKF is slighly bouncing off support lows. Support could break, but the setup still offers a good risk ratio and a trade that is easily managed. Enter as close to support as possible, place stop below support lows, with a target near resistance levels.
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The Simple SPY Strategy
My strategy for trading SPY is about as simple as it gets right now: Short strength and buy weakness. I will look to enter long on a pullback to the 200 day moving average. My “rubber band” short setup triggers on continued strength close to $100.
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What You Need to Know About SPY’s Change in Character
My recent bias has been short term bearish, intermediate term bullish. Short term, the character of the market seems to be changing. Price made a strong reversal on Friday on decent volume. More importantly, price pierced through the 200 day moving average. This is bullish. The negative volume pattern…
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Another Coal/Solar Trade Candidate
The chart speaks for itself. Ideal entry is at the bottom of the trading range.
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Paul J Singh 