Paul J Singh

Category: market notes

  • Under Armour Entry

    Here is the reasoning behind the UA trade trade I made today: It is startling just how well UA has performed in the midst of the current market conditions. What if UA had reported earnings in a good market environment? This explosive move leads me to believe the stock will…

  • $SPX Revisited

    On Friday I brought up the idea that we *may* have had a capitulation event that marked the end of the current correction. Today’s strong move in the $SPX, back over the 200 day moving average on heavy volume, lends more credence to the bull capitulation argument. There are a…

  • Breakouts vs Breakdowns: Capitulation or Disaster?

    Every night I scan for stocks breaking out (upward breakout) and breakout down. I mainly screen for stocks with specific price and volume movements, along with additional moving average and momentum screens. Friday had the biggest discrepancy between breakouts and breakdowns that I can remember. Only 26 stocks showed up…

  • Trade: MMM

    Later in the day I bought 400 shares of MMM at $88.75. The stock shows no signs of the recent market slide. I know some of you are scratching your heads thinking “it’s dropped from $92 to $88.” I see that too, and I like it. While many stocks pulled…

  • Another Strong Stock: CROX

    One of my loyal readers asked me why I keep spotlighting strong stocks when I am more apt to go short right now. Fair question. The reason is, at the moment, it is easy to find stocks to short. If I were to throw darts at a board with the…

  • Building My Watchlist

    Today I had a little time to “get away” from the vacation and analyze the market. My best bet is we will see a “dead cat bounce” followed by another leg down. Of course, I could be wrong and we’ll see more resilience from the bulls. Right now I am…

  • Market Technicals

    The S&P 500 is at a critcal juncture, already having broken below the 50 day moving average and now ready to test recent lows. If we see a breakdown below 1487, we officially will be in a short to mid term downtrend. A violation of this level would also signal…

  • Weakening Market?

    Only 6 out of 239 sector groups posted positive gains today. While the market did okay today, this breadth reading is not a postive for the market. To make matters worse, I only had 16 candidates to choose from on my breakout scan, which is the lowest I can remember…

  • Today’s Trade: STLD, and SPX

    I went short 500 shares of STLD at $45.70. I had a short set just under the 50 day MA, which of course triggered today. I was also stopped out of my 300 share long position in STLD at $45.90 (entry at $47.70) for a 540 loss (-3.7 %). Note…

  • Top 100 Watch List

    Here are all 100 stocks on my watchlist, including today’s performance. Note that only 17 of the 100 stocks made positive gains today. Even with the two day market pullback, many stocks on the list are still overbought and have yet to pullback to support. That’s why this correction has…

  • Blogger Quotes: Tim Knight is Numb

    There was a time, not long ago (like, ummm, early last week) that I would have felt cheated and flustered by the Chinese market’s tumble not having a bearish effect in the U.S. But at this point, I am so utterly distrustful (and numbed) by this market that I’m not…

  • The Right Side of the Market

    “There is only one side to the stock market;….not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock market speculation.”…

  • So What if There is Light Volume

    Many commentators around the blogosphere have pointed out that recent gains have been on light volume and should not be trusted. Rev Shark, an excellent trader, makes this point on his analysis of yesterday’s charts. While I respect this analysis, I could not disagree more. It’s a holiday week, people!…

  • Was The Market Reacting To Greenspan?

    If yesterday’s dip truly was a reaction to Greenspan’s China comments, rather than a more natural need for a correction, I think we are going to see the garden variety one day big dip I spoke of last night, followed by a resumption of the prevailing trend. Barry Ritholtz lays…

  • Watchlist

    There were only a few additions to the watchlist today. That’s not suprising, considering we had a distribution day yesterday and my watchlist is ninety percent on the long side. This weekend I will likely start screening for shorts this weekend, especially if we don’t get a decent bounce today.…

  • How Do We Play This Down Day

    As Trader Mike pointed out, we received stochastic sell signals in the indices today. However, I am not yet ready to start selling. There is strong support in the 1490-1500 range, and until this level is violated, we should expect that buyers will step in. That is what happened the…

  • Sector Spotlight: Energy – Part 1

    Energy stocks having been on fire. While it’s too early to tell, I suspect we may be in the midst of resuming a multi-year energy bull market. I certainly don’t want to miss the boat if this is true, so I skipped my usual Saturday nap (after playing tennis or…

  • Freshly Squeezed

    Days like today tend to turn smack talking bears into nervous nellies with itchy trigger fingers. This gives rise to a nice little stock market pop that makes everybody wonder if we really have seen th worst of it and bottomed. Maybe we have, though I seriously doubt it. More…

  • Monday’s Gameplan and a Look at Some Energy Plays

    Not much has changed for me heading into this week. I still plan to short strength and cover weakness. Much of the market is looking oversold, so I won’t initiate anymore shorts until I see a decent sized bounce. I am interested in watching for longs in energy, especially oil…

  • Tell Us Something Mr. Market

    Heading into options Friday, I don’t have much that’s new to say. Right now, it looks like we’re in the midst of a low volume dead cat bounce that will likely lead to another thrust down. However, we wont’ have a true tell until the recent lows are eclipsed or…

  • Chart: Analyzing the Nasdaq Composite

    Wow, that was some fakeout we saw today. Once the Nasdaq broke down below 2350 and the recent low, I was sure we were headed for a retest of the 200 day MA. Now I’m not so sure. The Naz (and other indexes), printed quite a powerful candle today on…