One That Got Away: IBN

A useful tool for improving trading is to analyze trades that you did not take. IBN has been on my radar for since the April breakout. I did not trade it because the volume pattern was not to my liking.However, the risk ratios have been good through out that time period. Price has been near... Continue Reading →

Poker, Trading and Making Adjustments

In my Thursday report to members, I talk about the current market, making adjustments and poker:Before we begin, let me compare what's going on now to poker. In Texas Hold'em, the best hand pre-flop is pocket Aces. Most players try to get as much money into the pot as they can when they are dealt... Continue Reading →

On Probability, Trading and Current Market

What do I mean by high probability?  In trading, I define a high probability setup as one that gives me a significant edge over an average trade.  For instance, in my back tests, when stochastics hit 90 (extremely overbought) in a bear market, coupled with a few specific trading setups, the success rate of shorting... Continue Reading →

Trades: VLO, USO and STLD

Here is the intra-day trade alert I sent to my subcribers (this is not a regular feature of the Trade Report, but I do send trade alerts from time to time):The gap down this morning blew past the entry and stop points I had set for SSO and QLD. Also, most of the stocks listed... Continue Reading →

Friday Game Plan

I'd like to pick up a few long positions in anticipation of an inauguration rally. The fact that we are very oversold increases the chances of a rally. I will still use tight stops with the strategy of taking a small loss with the possibility of a big gain.

SSO Provides Low Risk Entry

While the "edge" or probability for the trade may be 50 percent or less (accumulation pattern is not what it was a week ago), SSO does provide a low risk entry point that can be easily managed with a stop under the recent lows.I am willing to take low risk setups even if the probability... Continue Reading →

The RSI Effect

As long as the lows hold, the bottoming thesis is in effect. I have focused on more short term 3-6 month charts lately, but here is a two year chart showing the power of the oversold RSI, even in a longer term down trending "topping" market.

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