Category: strategy
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Trade Management
Here’s a note I posted in last night’s report on Trade Management and my strategy during the past two weeks: During the past two weeks, as noted in the reports and blog, my oversold bounce trades have basically broke even. A waste of time? Not quite. I was confident the…
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Partial Profits
I took partial profits (110 shares) on the SSO trade at $37.55. I will use this profit to keep my stop at “break even” level and let the remaining 100 shares “ride”. Thus, I will either make money or break even on this trade.
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Trade: SSO
200 shares of SSO at $38.64. Stop at $37.74. Initial target is $43.64. Next target is $50. Thus, I’m risking $200 for the chance to make $1000+. Note that the T2108 is at historic oversold levels and stochastics are way oversold.
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Trade Update: SSO, DUG and POT
I was stopped out of 100 shares of POT at $105.18 (short at $125.10) for a loss of $1992 (-18%) I exited DUG at $43.85 (average entry at 36.44). I originally entered with a total of 300 shares. My exits were at $40.12, $42.05 and $43.85, 100 shares each for…
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Positon Update
Position update from the Trade Report: I made two trades today, both involving POT. As noted yesterday, I was surprised it did not bounce, so I exited at my entry level today. When it dropped down to $125, it was too good to pass up as an oversold bounce play,…
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Important Lesson and Free Trade Report
I am posting today’s issue of the member only Trade Report. It is the shortest report I have published, and has the smallest focus list ever presented. There are also no charts. However, there is an important lesson that applies to blog readers as well as report membersqau. http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_313cgc6qqtr
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5 Ways to Play this Historic Bear Market
There are a lot of theories about how to play the current market. Some are predicting Armageddon. Others think this is the mother of all bullish trade opportunities. Then there are those who think it’s best to stay out of the market altogether. Very few of these theories provide a…
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Trade Update
I took partial profits in DUG today for a big gain at two points, $40 and $42. I am still holding a position. I exited AAPL for a big loss. I was stopped out of USD for a very small loss. I was stopped out of X for a small…
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Covering the Commodity Shorts For Nice Profits
I could not have asked for more from the PCX, FWLT and POT trades. I covered my entire positions and may short again on strength. Note on the charts below that there is still room to fall. Those of you who have been with me for a while know I…
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How I Profited From the Biggest Gap Ever in SPY
Today was the biggest gap up ever for the SPY. Here are links to the past two Trade Reports, where you can see how I outlined my plan for trading SPY: September 18 Report September 19 Report Trade Update: I exited all my long positions at the open this morning…
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Long Bias
The market is reaching extreme levels, which gives me a long side bias. However, I won’t take any full size positions until I see more weakness. We still have not reached the extremes of the July lows, and indicators like T2108 still need to drop a bit. I also like…
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The Plan
The plan for tomorrow is simple: wait for the buying opportunity. Once panic really sets in and we get some extreme oversold readings, it will be time to buy. That’s what my studies of past panic events tells me. Most likely, the time to buy will not be tomorrow. It’s…
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Final Exit in Pot Trade
update (11:57am): typos fixed. Thanks to those who pointed them out. I exited what was left of my POT position at $159.89. The final details of the trade. 100 shares of POT bought at $139.22 Exit 50 shares at $150.04Exit 50 shares at $160.06 Average exit $155 for 11.3% gain.…
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The Only Way I Know to Trade Post-Boom Commodity Bust
Today I received an insightful comment about commodity stocks and my recent bounce plays: This market is nasty. The commodity stocks you point out had a little bounce yesterday but are down again today. The selling seems indiscriminate. I have only been studying the market for about 8 year so…
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The SPY Failed Breakout Trade
On August 12th I went short SPY around $131 (actually used SDS) based on the “failed breakout scenario” I noted in the trade report. While it’s been a bumpy ride, the trade is really starting to take off now. This is a good example of how important it is not…
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Expect a Bounce in Nasdaq
The bullish setup that I had been watching and trading in the Nasdaq was obliterated earlier this week. While the trend is now decidedly bearish, we are nearing a strong support zone that could provide a bounce that can be traded. If QLD (leveraged long Qs) drops down in the…
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Financials and Banks
Many financial and bank stocks are showing bottoming continuation patterns. However, SKF, the inverse ETF that I use to short the sector, is at a key support level and may be good for a quick trade. The probability of the trade working is likely not better than 50 percent. However,…
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AAPL
While I am by no means bullish on AAPL, a break of $180 would provide a clue as to the stock’s short term price movement.
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SPY Trade Analysis
Last Monday (August 12th) I took a small SPY short position based on a “failed breakout” scenario, above $131 (I actually used SDS–the inverse ETF). It’s now trading at $126.69. Below is what I wrote to my trade report members. It explains not only the setup, but the thought process…
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SPY Breaches Key Support Level
As I noted in the member only Trade Report two days ago, I took an early entry short position in SPY (via short ETF SDS)based on the idea that a failed breakout could lead to big gains, while continued up move would stop me out for only a small loss.…
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Staying Away From Steel
While I am decidedly bearish on most commodity sectors, the one sub-sector I am staying away from is steel. Steel stocks are all over the place. Take a look at the sampling below. Two steel stocks have made huge upside moves and could be reversing the recent topping pattern (AKS…
Paul J Singh 