Paul J Singh

Category: market notes

  • 5 Ways to Play this Historic Bear Market

    There are a lot of theories about how to play the current market. Some are predicting Armageddon. Others think this is the mother of all bullish trade opportunities. Then there are those who think it’s best to stay out of the market altogether. Very few of these theories provide a…

  • Game Plan

    This weeks game plan is to expect a bounce that will fail at a major resistance level. That will be the time to start shorting again. In the meantime, I will look to take a few positions to play a bounce. I am already in AAPL, X and USD, which…

  • Covering the Commodity Shorts For Nice Profits

    I could not have asked for more from the PCX, FWLT and POT trades. I covered my entire positions and may short again on strength. Note on the charts below that there is still room to fall. Those of you who have been with me for a while know I…

  • Narrow Focus List

    I have narrowed my focus list to less than 10 stocks for tomorrow’s trading day. The only decent setup I see is short commodities. Many are right up at resistance lelves. Any trades will be taken with very small position sizes.

  • Trade Update: All Cash

    I’ve been out of town since Friday and did not have a chance to update the blog. Here is an excerpt about my trades and plan from Friday’s Trade Report: It’s obvious today was a short covering rally. Large price moves like we saw today that aren’t confirmed by volume…

  • Long Bias

    The market is reaching extreme levels, which gives me a long side bias. However, I won’t take any full size positions until I see more weakness. We still have not reached the extremes of the July lows, and indicators like T2108 still need to drop a bit. I also like…

  • The Plan

    The plan for tomorrow is simple: wait for the buying opportunity. Once panic really sets in and we get some extreme oversold readings, it will be time to buy. That’s what my studies of past panic events tells me. Most likely, the time to buy will not be tomorrow. It’s…

  • Game Plan for the Week

    There are not a lot of great setups going into the week. Currenly I plan to manage my commodity bounce positions, watch financials for long entries and keep an eye on shorts that are setting up.

  • Expect a Bounce in Nasdaq

    The bullish setup that I had been watching and trading in the Nasdaq was obliterated earlier this week. While the trend is now decidedly bearish, we are nearing a strong support zone that could provide a bounce that can be traded. If QLD (leveraged long Qs) drops down in the…

  • SPY Breaches Key Support Level

    As I noted in the member only Trade Report two days ago, I took an early entry short position in SPY (via short ETF SDS)based on the idea that a failed breakout could lead to big gains, while continued up move would stop me out for only a small loss.…

  • Sectors with Bottom Formations

    No matter how bearish your fundamental thesis is on the following sectors, it’s hard to deny that price and volume are showing bottoming formations in financials, casinos and real estate. Here is what I wrote about these sectors in the Trade Report to start the week: I have narrowed my…

  • Where’s the Volume?

    As I type, I am sitting on the deck of a cottage over looking Lake Superior. Listening to the waves gently crash against the rocky shore below me, I am hard pressed to look at any charts. I don’t know of many places with more natural beauty than Minnesota’s Northern…

  • Trade Update:

    I exited my commodity shorts at the close yesterday and will use strength to re-establish short positions. I am also looking to short weak sectors that have bounced with the market. I also exited a few of my long bounce plays, like UYG (financials) at the close for some tidy…

  • Quick Trade Update: QLD and Commodity Shorts

    I took partial profits in a few of my commodity related shorts and entered QLD this morning. I mentioned QLD in last night’s trade report. As noted in the report, the Nasdaq has recently held up better than the S&P 500. Recent free trade reports: July 15 July 14

  • Quickie Trade Update

    I used the bounce in commodities this morning to get short coal, natural gas and steel stocks. I also exited my long ag play (MON), which I did not have time to update yesterday. I was using extreme, overextended weakness to play a quick bounce. I am still long the…

  • A Short on the Bounce

    If we get a bounce, as I have been setting up for, the market will take some crappy stocks with it. Once these stocks near resistance levels, that’s when I will switch from my short term long bias and establish more shorts. This chart of WYNN is a good example…

  • Trading Plan and Clarification

    Trading Plan: My watchlist is small this week. Probably as small as it has been all year. However, I may take some of the biggest position sizes I have taken in quite some time (while still managing risk appropriately). Here is the list: I am monitoring leveraged index long ETFs…

  • After the Bounce: What’s in Store for the S&P

    As noted at the end of last week, I have positioned myself for a bounce. However, these plays are short term and I will use the bounce to deploy a number of short play. Here is the plan for the S&P. This chart annotes SDS, the inverse S&P short ETF.…

  • Trades and Thoughts

    All of my oversold bounce indicators are now flashing buy signals. However, I do have some concerns and am not taking on any huge positions here. While I have made some trades to the long side to try and capitalize on a bounce, they are all average or small in…

  • Quickie Trade Update

    I’ll post specifics later, but I’ve used today’s weakness to buy an index ETF, and made one ag and one energy play.

  • Stalking for the Bounce

    I use 6 indicators for deciding when to play an oversold bounce. Today four of them are giving buy signals. If we get a good amount of weakness tomorrow, the fifth indicator will likely give a buy signal as well. For the time being, I am ignoring my watchlist. I…