Paul J Singh

Category: market notes

  • Is the Market Speculator Really Long a Homebuilder?

    I’ve been very busy, so I haven’t had a chance to update my trades. As stated in the comments section this morning, I unloaded a bunch of shorts and entered a few longs. I would like to add some more shorts on bounce. My bias is still to the down…

  • Today’s Trade Entries: DUG and AGU

    I bought 200 shares of DUG at $46.56. DUG is an ETF that is short oil and gas. Looking at the chart, we see major accumulation and a pullback to a major moving average and price support. Note that this is the opposite of what is happening in the oil…

  • Classic Distrubtion Phase Price and Volume Action

    As I expected, last week’s bounce was prone to failure and it looks like we are going to test the late January lows. I am weighted to the short side, so you can bet I am giddy about price acton over the past two days. As we move towards the…

  • Post Fed Game Plan

    It is a relief to have the fed cut out of the way. The market’s manic, ultimately negative response, lends credence to my thesis that we will at least test recent lows. I will look to unleash some shorts in the coming days, most likely in last year’s momo stocks…

  • Weekly Spy Chart

    Analysis of the weekly SPY chart leads me to believe the market still has room for a bounce before the next downturn.Key factors in support of bounce:1. Bounce at major price support2. Stochastic oversold crossover developing3. More room to move until resistance reached. Note that each time stochastic has reached…

  • Today’s Hot Sector: Agriculture

    Yesterday it was the financials and real estate, and today the hot sector was agriculture. Great move if you caught it. Now the million dollar question is whether this move was due to short covering or the start of a reversal that will resume the sector uptrend. More to the…

  • Today’s Plan

    I am looking hedge my two long index plays (DDM and UWM), with couple of shorts. I went short NOV this morning and may pull the trigger on another stocks with a broken pattern that is bouncing. The shorts are less than half the size of my index positions, which…

  • Quick Trade Update

    I was stopped out of SKF and bought UWM and DDM, which are ultra long the Dow 30 and Russell 2000. Looks like this might be the capitulation bounce we’ve been waiting for. Update: A few readers have asked how I timed the DDM trade so perfectly. I should have…

  • Today’s Trade: SKF

    Well, I finally gave in. It’s just too tempting. I had to short financials today. I took a hard look at MER and LEH, but decided to go with the “ultrashort” financial ETF. I still am not willing to make any big bets, so I went with a small 100…

  • Today’s Trades: QLD and TWM

    The only thing I am willing to do right now is make quick day trades. As I stated last night, I am only watching index and sector ETFs for trades at the moment. I placed two profitable daytrades in QLD and TWM. I will detail the trades and my strategy…

  • Game Plan

    If you read my blog, you probably already know about the carnage that hit the world and the futures markets today, and might be looking to see how I plan to trade this market. Maybe the Spec has some well thought out game plan to make loads of money tomorrow.…

  • Trade Update and Short Term Trading Plan

    I covered the remainder of the GS short at $186.23 and exited my QLD position at $79. I re-entered QLD at $76.23 with a tight stop (basically using my profits from the last QLD trade to cover this one) in case we bounce in the coming days. We will eventually…

  • Market Notes: Are We Oversold?

    I am still finding this market tough to trade. I have no problem trading in bear markets, but my issue right now is that we are oversold, but not that oversold. So it’s tough to initiate longs or shorts. If I do decide to trade, it will most likely be…

  • Market Notes

    We are in a tough spot with regards to initiating short positions, and I’m in no mood to add longs. I was hoping for more of a bounce before short entry, but today’s move ruined my plans. Amazingly, we are still above last week’s low of 1378 (by two points).…

  • Ain’t No Egg on My Face . . .Yet

    Many were quick to get on me after the market failed to rocket up after my capitulation call last week. While I conceded that I could be wrong, I also pointed out that it is not invalidated until a breach of 1378 on the S&P 500. Capitulation bounces rarely go…

  • This Bounce and Trade Update

    I have received a few e-mails asking whether the bounce is over. I honestly don’t know. However, in my mind, it’s not officially over unless we breach 1378 on the S&P chart. There is still a ways to go down before that happens. I think what we are seeing today…

  • Focus List Stocks and Market Note

    I’ve stated already that I am bullish oil, gas and ag related stocks. Here are some outside these industries that look strong: CMED, JASO, RICK, INP (India ETF), EDU, IVGN, OFG, RSX I am still in bear market mode. Although the market is bouncing, volume has been light and today’s…

  • That Capitulation Call Was a Thing of Beauty

    I’ve gotta admit, I feel like a bad ass today. Over the past year I’ve really felt in synch with the market, but it’s getting to the point of “ridiculousness”. I have to keep telling myself to stay psychologically balanced and not let all the trading success get to me…

  • Short Term Capitulation?

    I have a feeling we might be in the midst of short term capitulation. Things look really bad, many former leaders are getting abused and it is really tough to buy right now. Note that does not mean we are going to see the uptrend resume. If we get a…

  • Excellent Article Highlighting Momentum Plays

    Tereas Lo has posted an excellent article highlighing sentiment cycles. It’s ironic that she uses the dry shipping industry as an example, since it is a sector I played on the way up and have recently been playing as a short on the way down (I’ve already shorted DRYS three…

  • Market, Trade and Chat Notes

    Trades:I initiated a few shorts on the morning bounce (DRYS, LEH). I bought KGC, a gold stock for which I had a buy stop in place on breakout of $21. Tough Market:Four of the six people I’ve had private chats with have said they are having trouble gaming this market.…