On Probability, Trading and Current Market

What do I mean by high probability?  In trading, I define a high probability setup as one that gives me a significant edge over an average trade.  For instance, in my back tests, when stochastics hit 90 (extremely overbought) in a bear market, coupled with a few specific trading setups, the success rate of shorting is above 75 percent.  This is a very high probability setup.  Obviously, it doesn’t occur often.  When it does, I usually get very aggressive with the trade.  
Adding volume and paying attention to accumulation and distribution patterns can add or subtract to the probability of a pattern setup.  For instance, in the bottoming price pattern, strong accumulation (positive volume pattern) underlying the price pattern increases the probability that the trade will be a winner.
Currently their are no high probability setups.  However, if the market pulls back to support, or ramps higher toward resistance levels and become extremely overbought, well see high probability setups emerge.


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