SFK Trade, Partial Exits and Poker

I received a number of similar questions about the SKF and Poker posts:

How did you determine your partial profit target for the SKF trade; and when do you decide to use a full exit versus partial exits?

I like to use partial exits when major resistance is more than 10 percent from my entry. This happens quite often with certain setups, like oversold bounce and breakouts-pullbacks.

For the SKF trade, major resistance is near the 50 day moving average at about $123. That’s my target. However, that’s about 20 percent away from my entry. If my targer never got hit, I would not want to give up a 10-15 percent gain. To remedy this problem I use a partial exit at around 10 percent, move up my stop to lock in that profit, and hold on until my next target is hit.

It seems that you were upset with yourself about the “big hand” in the poker post, but you said you had a 95 percent probability of winning. Why is this a bad move?

I confused some of you about what I was upset about with regards to my play that night. It wasn’t the intitial $3600 bet I lost. I’ll take a 95 percent probability every time. What I was upset with myself about was the $900 I lost after that hand. I made poor decisions because I was an emotional wreck, or on “tilt”, because of losing based on a good decision ealier. So I wasn’t criticizing my play on the big loss, it was the smaller losses after that hand that I need to work on.


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